Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 0.019216 0.021788 0.024581 0.027843 0.031547 0.035625 0.040458
2025-06-01 0.015229 0.018775 0.022964 0.028283 0.034866 0.042758 0.052954
2025-06-08 0.012774 0.016666 0.021534 0.028078 0.036664 0.047573 0.062530
2025-06-15 0.011438 0.015634 0.021131 0.028877 0.039544 0.053763 0.074240
2025-06-22 0.009817 0.013963 0.019616 0.027911 0.039816 0.056358 0.081213
2025-06-29 0.008710 0.012837 0.018669 0.027542 0.040760 0.059822 0.089581
2025-07-06 0.007639 0.011626 0.017446 0.026597 0.040699 0.061735 0.095737
2025-07-13 0.007225 0.011335 0.017521 0.027551 0.043511 0.068092 0.109158
2025-07-20 0.006801 0.010975 0.017438 0.028227 0.045913 0.073982 0.122348
2025-07-27 0.006467 0.010719 0.017481 0.029082 0.048646 0.080589 0.137271
2025-08-03 0.005961 0.010129 0.016926 0.028890 0.049608 0.084347 0.147712
2025-08-10 0.005547 0.009653 0.016510 0.028878 0.050845 0.088630 0.159396
2025-08-17 0.005086 0.009061 0.015861 0.028431 0.051327 0.091724 0.169412
2025-08-24 0.004810 0.008773 0.015713 0.028855 0.053401 0.097815 0.185499
2025-08-31 0.004467 0.008329 0.015245 0.028646 0.054279 0.101786 0.197948
2025-09-07 0.004302 0.008197 0.015329 0.029462 0.057137 0.109655 0.218617
2025-09-14 0.003912 0.007606 0.014508 0.028476 0.056429 0.110657 0.225782
2025-09-21 0.003636 0.007211 0.014025 0.028099 0.056873 0.113909 0.237754
2025-09-28 0.003317 0.006703 0.013281 0.027135 0.056042 0.114534 0.244308
2025-10-05 0.003242 0.006678 0.013484 0.028109 0.059267 0.123660 0.269722
2025-10-12 0.003140 0.006589 0.013549 0.028798 0.061949 0.131875 0.293927
2025-10-19 0.003062 0.006542 0.013697 0.029672 0.065095 0.141330 0.321769
2025-10-26 0.002887 0.006276 0.013363 0.029476 0.065881 0.145735 0.338558